Fundação Dom Cabral


Modeling Government Investment and Performance in Public Security.
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Modeling Government Investment and Performance in Public Security.

2.013 Nova Lima, MG:  FDC Núcleo de Estratégias e Economias Emergentes,  2013.  (Caderno de Ideias ;  CI1313). 11 p. ALVES, Paulo Vicente dos Santos. Caderno de Ideias Alves, Paulo Vicente dos Santos ALVES, Paulo Vicente dos Santos. Governments have tried to implement budget methods like PPBS (Planning Programming Budgeting System), ZBB (Zero Base Budget) and RBB (Results Based Budgeting) for decades. However, in practice budgeting has been mostly incremental in most areas, and the results obtained have seldom been linked to the investment made years before. This paper tries to create models to make the investment more rational and proactive and less based on political pressures and results guessing.
The public policy selected for this study is the public security. Two models are created to study this public policy under the modelling method. The first model is a simulator and its focus is on four crime rates with reasonable data and studies: homicide (murder), robbery, burglary and motor vehicle theft. These variables are normally used to determine government performance in the public sector.
Initially the study surveys the literature for which factors have evidence that affect these crime rates, and them builds a model on how the investment of the public sector will affect these variables during a period that may be a budget cycle of one year or longer. Some of the factors found to be relevant include hiring more policemen, increasing inmate population, street lightning, drug consumption by population, abortion and technology usage by police. This model serves as a basis for discussing the budget in a more rational way even when optimization is not possible due to political constraints. This is an important move toward implementing RBB, since the model allows for forecasting the results based on the size and type of investment eliminating the need for guessing the results. Performance and results intended in a given period can serve as a basis for the simulation of investments and therefore evaluation of possible policies of investment, and whether the results intended are realistic, or just a wishful thinking.
From this point the study tries to develop a second more systemic model for public policy involving factors outside this policy, like the effect of crime in the economy and society and these back into crime allowing to understand the positive and negative feedbacks of the system. This systemic model is not as strong mathematically but serves the purpose of understanding the phenomenon of public policy in a larger context and thus allowing for integration of policies and strategic projects that support public security indirectly. This allows for a better PPBS and RBB method usage since it can be used to search for synergies in the various projects and programs in several public policies, but also to design new programs and projects to support public security.
Inglês 005.21 A474m 2013 2007